lucasAI

Powered by PRISM (Predictive Risk Intelligence for Sports Markets): live NBA/MLB ensemble forecasts, market-edge scoring, and closed-loop learning from resolved outcomes.

Pipelines active Database sync: daily for results Predictions and odds: every 30 minutes Prisms Picks

What This System Is Doing

Every morning, completed games are written back to each sport database to keep performance tracking up to date. Throughout the day, prediction models refresh with fresh market odds, then surface the strongest discrepancies between model probability and sportsbook implied probability.

The goal is decision support: show where model confidence and market pricing align or diverge, then measure outcomes over time.

PRISM improves over time via a closed feedback loop: each finalized pick is stored with lifecycle status, stake state, injury-lock timing, implied probabilities, and realized outcome. Analyst feedback then updates weighting preferences for tiering and trust gates, while the history set grows calibration quality across confidence bands and edge buckets.

PRISM Performance
Real P/L tracking · settled picks · bankroll curve since day 1
Live
Current Bankroll
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Net P/L
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Settled Win Rate
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PRISM Playbook

How to Use Edge, Qualified Bets, and Live Picks

PRISM is built to answer two questions: is the model seeing value the market is underpricing, and is the setup stable enough to bet after injuries, line movement, and bankroll sizing are checked?

Use the sport tabs for the full prediction board. Use this guide when you want the practical rules behind the numbers and the workflow behind the picks that make it to the live board.

Edge = model win probability - market implied probability

Qualified window: -5% to <20% Minimum confidence: 60% Model must agree with the side MLB waits for confirmed pitchers

Quick Rules

Qualified is a filter, not an auto-bet. It narrows the board to the setups PRISM takes most seriously, then the live workflow adds injury-lock and stake timing on top.
Status matters. Monitoring or hold injury lock means wait. Ready for stake means the pick has cleared the live workflow and can be sized.
Stake is separate from edge. Edge tells you price value. Stake tells you how much bankroll PRISM is willing to risk after context and exposure checks.
Extreme edges are capped out. Qualified analysis stops below 20% because the biggest gaps are treated as likely model overconfidence versus a sharper market.

What Edge Means

Edge is a pricing signal, not just a prediction strength signal. If PRISM makes a side 64% and the sportsbook price implies 58%, that is a +6% edge. The model thinks the side wins more often than the line suggests.

Positive edge: the price may be too cheap for the team or side PRISM likes.
Near-zero edge: the model and market mostly agree, so confidence may be real but price value is thin.
Slight negative edge: PRISM can still keep it in the qualified bucket when the model is strong and the chosen side still matches the model winner, but it is a thinner setup than a clear positive edge.

How Qualified Bets Work

Qualified bets are the narrow slice PRISM uses for the strongest historical tracking and the cleanest apples-to-apples review.

Side Agreement

Model and pick match

Confidence

60% or higher

Edge Window

-5% up to <20%

MLB Guardrail

Pitchers confirmed

The small negative edge allowance keeps high-confidence model calls that only disagree with the market by a little. The top cap removes the wild outliers where the model is likely too far away from a sharper number.

How To Play It

Start with qualified or best-bet candidates. They are the filtered board, not the raw feed of every game.

Check the live status. If the pick is still monitoring or waiting on the final injury lock, the process is telling you not to force it yet.

Confirm the price still exists. Compare odds, sportsbook, and line move so you are not chasing a stale number that already moved away.

Let bankroll sizing decide the stake. PRISM separates "is this a bet" from "how much should be risked" on purpose.

Passing is part of the method. If the price is gone, the injury window is unresolved, or the risk factors widen late, the right move is often no play.

How to Read a Live PRISM Pick

Status: monitoring means watch it, hold injury lock means wait for the final news window, ready for stake means the pick is clear for sizing, and historical means it is already in review mode.
Stake and stake status: the recommended size from bankroll logic. Provisional means it can still move before the final lock.
Model confidence: PRISM's estimated win probability for the side.
Edge: the gap between PRISM's number and the market's implied number.
Odds, sportsbook, and line move: tells you whether the live market still matches the original opportunity.
Injury lock, recheck before tip, supporting factors, and risk factors: these explain what still needs confirmation and what could invalidate the pick.

NBA Forecast Center

Ensemble probabilities, edges, injury context

MLB Forecast Center

Ensemble probabilities and model-vs-market gap